Real Wx Services: Severe Outlook for May 27th 2012

Sunday, May 27, 2012

Severe Outlook for May 27th 2012

Temperatures will be in the mid 70s to near 100 degrees.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/27/00/NAM_221_2012052700_F24_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png...DEWPOINTS in the 60s to 70 range .. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/27/00/NAM_221_2012052700_F24_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png ... CAPE 500- 3500 http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/27/00/NAM_221_2012052700_F24_CAPE_SURFACE.png... LIFT INDEX is 0 to -10 depending on where you are located.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/27/00/NAM_221_2012052700_F24_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png... ENERGY HELICITY INDEX around 1.0 to 2.0 http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/27/00/NAM_221_2012052700_F24_EHI_1000_M.png ..We are going to agree with what Storm Prediction Center Shows as the tornado threat area based on the EHI but we are going to extend it over all of Wisconsin.. Greatest HELICITY is across the Canadian border and not aligned up with the EHI ..http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/27/00/NAM_221_2012052700_F24_HLCY_1000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png ..SHEAR is 40 -60 knots which is sufficient for severe weather.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/27/00/NAM_221_2012052700_F24_SHRM_500_MB.png ..So lets look at what we are actually looking at now..http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif Stationary front along the middle of the country northern tier stretching from east to west . Low pressure is over the Rockies region. This front will stay stationary and serve as a focal axis for severe weather potential. Also a cold front will develop from the low pressure moving out of the Rocky Mountain region and that will move off to the east. In the afternoon evening time the stationary front should begin to lift north as a warm front. With High EHI yesterday and not much in the way of severe weather and really no tornados at all reported and lower EHI today we would place the Tornado chance at 2%. At the present time we see nothing to support the moderate risk from what we are looking at on the guidance!

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