Severe Weather Outlook For May 15th 2012

Severe Weather Outlook For May 15th 2012

Lets look at Parameters to start off with ...
Temperatures will be in the 60s to 80s depending on where you live..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/15/00/NAM_221_2012051500_F24_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
Dew Points will be in the 60-70 range again depending on where you live!
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/15/00/NAM_221_2012051500_F24_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
CAPE is 500 to about 2500 Depending on where you reside..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/15/00/NAM_221_2012051500_F24_CAPE_SURFACE.png
LIFT INDEX to about negative 7 depending on where you are..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/15/00/NAM_221_2012051500_F24_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png

EHI is essentially non existent ..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/15/00/NAM_221_2012051500_F24_EHI_1000_M.png
HELICITY is not very impressive either across any of the region..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/15/00/NAM_221_2012051500_F24_HLCY_1000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
Small portion of MI would be the greatest risk for a Isolated tornado...We do not see a big tornado chance because the EHI and Helicity is just really not pointing towards anything significant..
The other problem really is a lack of any significant SHEAR
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/15/00/NAM_221_2012051500_F24_SHRM_500_MB.png

LAPSE RATES
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfslapse024.gif

We will turn to the GFS for these and they are pretty decent at 6.0 +

At the surface for a trigger we have a cold front that will be dropping from the SE thru the lakes region..

Along the eastern seaboard any severe will be related to the broad area of low pressure that will be moving thru the region along the stationary front.  Over all we are not impressed with the severe aspect...any storms that could manage to go severe would be more along the wind/hail threat and over all we think its a lower risk ..
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_us.gif
The above is a look at current satellite and you can see there is alot of cloud cover in place across the region. If we can get the cloud cover to break and get some sunshine involved then we could be looking at a greater chance of severe.....locations to the south of say the PA /MD region have the greatest chance at this to occur...