Severe Weather Outlook for May 6th
Lets begin by looking at the severe parameters in place ...
Temperatures will be in the 70s to 90s across the region..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/06/00/NAM_221_2012050600_F24_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
Dew Points are going to be in the 60s and 70s across the region..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/06/00/NAM_221_2012050600_F24_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
CAPE will be from 500 to as much as 4500 across the region
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/06/00/NAM_221_2012050600_F24_CAPE_SURFACE.png
LIFT index from 0 to as low as negative 12 across the region
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/06/00/NAM_221_2012050600_F24_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png
EHI Isolated locations that are 1 or higher...
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/06/00/NAM_221_2012050600_F24_EHI_1000_M.png
HELICITY greatest area is further north over the lakes region but this does not allocate well with the greatest EHI or other severe parameters ..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/06/00/NAM_221_2012050600_F24_HLCY_1000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
SHEAR
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/06/00/NAM_221_2012050600_F21_SHRM_500_MB.png
SHEAR is the biggest question as the greatest shear is over the NE region and the other area of greatest shear is behind the severe weather zone.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/92fwbgus.gif
At the surface we see a low pressure over SW MN with a cold front to another area of low pressure over SW Kansas with the cold front then trailing to the south west and with the dry line running from the north to the south in TX. A Semi Stationary front also extends SE and then across the SE from the low pressure in SW MN. It is possible that there could be some severe weather along that front across the SE but we did not include that area in the outlook because that should be isolated and more in the way of heavier rain fall.
In TX the cold front will over take the dry line but for the most part of the day the TX region should be dry until later in the afternoon towards evening when moisture starts to increase. With no EHI and no Helicity to be concerned with the severe potential there would be for mainly winds and Hail and this is also called into question because of really a lack of shear. Essentially you can have the greatest parameters in place but if shear is really weak you really can not get anything strong enough to be sustained so again this should be a mainly isolated region for severe weather!
The greatest area of concern we have highlighted is in red and this is because of the EHI and we think this is the area that will have the greatest chance for a couple tornado's.
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