Severe Weather Outlook May 10th 2012

Severe Weather Outlook May 10th 2012
Lets begin with looking at the severe parameters in place:
Temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/10/00/NAM_221_2012051000_F24_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
Dew points will be in the 50s and 60s
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/10/00/NAM_221_2012051000_F24_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
CAPE not overly impressive with 500 to about 2000
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/10/00/NAM_221_2012051000_F24_CAPE_SURFACE.png
Lift index is 0 to -7 depending where you are located
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/10/00/NAM_221_2012051000_F24_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png
EHI is less then 1 all over until AFTER midnight a isolated location in southern TX reaches 1 around 1 AM to 7 AM time frame
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/10/00/NAM_221_2012051000_F24_EHI_1000_M.png
HELICITY is also not impressive ..but again it does become impressive more or less after midnight across the north where we have the small severe zone..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/10/00/NAM_221_2012051000_F24_HLCY_1000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
SHEAR is probably the most impressive ingredient with the severe parameters today with the range of 35 knots to as much as 80 knots to the north. It is because of this INCOMING shear that we have introduced a severe zone with a impulse that will be moving across the region. Again though this may not actually occur in the north till after midnight..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/10/00/NAM_221_2012051000_F24_SHRM_500_MB.png
Over all we are not that impressed with the severe chances as the parameters are essentially all very marginal with the exception of the shear to the north that is coming in with a little impulse of energy.
An upper level low will be responsible for the severe weather potential across southern TX. Again..with marginal parameters ...little EHI and Helicity..the greatest threats for severe weather will be Hail and or Winds. It is possible that an isolated tornado may occur but that should be more the exception then the norm...