May 7th Severe Weather Outlook...
Current Surface map
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif
Current Surface map at 00z or 7 PM shows low pressure over SW TX with a cold front extending to another low over the Ok Border and then the front continues to extend NE to another low over SE Iowa. From that low drapes a warm front which then turns into a cold front across the Southeast.
This whole frontal system and two areas of low pressure are basically going to be pushing off to the east northeast and cause a warm front to move towards the Northeast region.
The cold front will be the focus of the severe weather over the southeast region...
Temperatures will be in the 70-90 range across the region in discussion
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/07/00/NAM_221_2012050700_F24_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
Dew Points will be in the 60-70 range
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/07/00/NAM_221_2012050700_F24_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
CAPE approximately 500-3000 across the region depending on where you are located..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/07/00/NAM_221_2012050700_F24_CAPE_SURFACE.png
LIFT Index from 0 to negative 8 depending on where you are located..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/07/00/NAM_221_2012050700_F24_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png
HELICITY
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/07/00/NAM_221_2012050700_F24_HLCY_1000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
The greatest area is actually over Central PA but this region is not anticipating any severe weather ...due to lack of other parameters ..
SHEAR
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/07/00/NAM_221_2012050700_F24_SHRM_500_MB.png
The greatest is over Western TX and then the Northeast region and the upper Midwest. Else where the shear is lacking..
EHI
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/07/00/NAM_221_2012050700_F24_EHI_1000_M.png
As you can see EHI is lacking across the area. The lack of Helicity and the lack of EHI suggests that tornadoes will be less likely.
So we should be mainly dealing with severe weather in the form of winds and hail but as always ..you can never rule out an isolated tornado!
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