Discussion and Weather Parameters. Let me start this off with saying yesterday in the Northeast was a rather active day. And despite the active day in the Northeast, our city where Down To Earth Forecasting is out of did not experience any severe weather in the center part of town. The last time a true severe storm occurred was July 2010. Today the 30th focus will shift to the south central part of the USA. We will start off looking at the parameters and then we will talk about what is going on at the surface. So TEMPERATURES are as follows: 70 to as high as 100 degrees. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/30/00/NAM_221_2012053000_F24_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.pngDEW POINTS will be in the 60-70 degree range so some places will continue to feel that tropical like atmosphere.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/30/00/NAM_221_2012053000_F24_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.pngCAPE or INSTABILITY will once again be in the range of 500-3500..http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/30/00/NAM_221_2012053000_F24_CAPE_SURFACE.png ..LIFT INDEX will be 0 to negative 10 depending on where you are located in the severe zone.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/30/00/NAM_221_2012053000_F24_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png... Definitely no lack of SHEAR with 30-50 knots of SHEAR in place ..http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/30/00/NAM_221_2012053000_F24_SHRM_500_MB.png .. ENERGY HELICITY INDEX is around 1 or above in OK and Southern Kansas and this would represent where Super Cells would be possible. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/30/00/NAM_221_2012053000_F24_EHI_1000_M.png ...HELICITY is 200 or under...This generally is not something you like to see if you are the type that likes Tornado's . http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/05/30/00/NAM_221_2012053000_F24_HLCY_1000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png ... GFS shows very steep lapse rates across the region.. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfslapse024.gif ..LAPSE RATES are as high as 7.5 to 8.0 which indicates that large Hail would be a potential today.. At the surface http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif You see a stationary front with an area of low pressure that was located over Western Oklahoma. By 6 Z http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/91fwbgus.gif this map shows well where the stationary front should be located as well as the Dry line and the area of low pressure. This stationary front looks to turn into a cold front but will stay in relatively the same location ..making it quasi stationary and will be the trigger for severe storms to initiate along. While this is happening an Upper Level trough will also be making its way towards the east. Severe threats today will be mainly Hail and Winds with an area of tornado's at 2 % across the region mentioned above. To the north of the red line across OK/KS for example we would place winds/Hail at 30% ... Other wise ..if your specific area is not mentioned then you are in a lower risk of severe which means Hail and or Wind is possible...
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