Taking a look at what is going to transpire over the next 72 hours..
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/92fwbgus_init_2012051300.gif
By 12 Z there will be a cold front across western PA with a low pressure area that will be developing over the Southeast states.. the cold front will make its way eastwards and is expected to stall and become stationary across East Central PA. This will allow the low pressure developing in the southeast to track up and along the stalled out stationary front.
By Monday evening this low pressure should be located over SW Virginia.
For Mothers Day for the most part it should be a partly sunny day at least in the PA region..one exception could be across western PA ..In eastern PA the rainfall should wait to move in until after midnight and the heaviest rains look to occur on Monday evening and overnight.
A widespread 1 - 3 inches of rain is anticipated and this will cause ponding on roadways and also flash flooding ..and perhaps some small creeks to over flow their banks.
Not much instability to work with as far as thunderstorm activity is concerned but there could be some garden variety type thunderstorms as well.
It is possible that we could have training areas of rainfall which essentially means that the heaviest rains may keep training over the same region. If this occurs along with any thunderstorms we could be looking at some locations picking up over three inches of rain. Best chance of this would be from SE PA into NYC area.
Another cold front will pass thru on Wednesday but by this time the heaviest precipitation should be pushed off to the east with nothing but some lingering showers possible!
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