Day 1 Outlook For July 17th

Day 1 Outlook For July 17th
We are also going to be issuing a Day 2 outlook which is something that we rarely do.
In the east we had had a slight break from the oppressive heat but as we mentioned it would be on the return (slowly beginning end of last week ) but not becoming oppressive until early this week.
Today is going to be once again on the down right hot and sticky side across the central USA into the east with temperatures mainly in the 90s ..and dew points will be in the 60-0 range ..
Temperatures
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/17/00/NAM_221_2012071700_F18_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
Dew points
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/17/00/NAM_221_2012071700_F24_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
CAPE is showing to be about 500-3500 across the severe zone in the east and about 500-2500 in the west..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/17/00/NAM_221_2012071700_F24_CAPE_SURFACE.png
Lift Index is about 0 to - 8 depending on where you are located..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/17/00/NAM_221_2012071700_F24_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png
SHEAR about 25-40 over the West with about 40 to 60 coming across the Northeast region..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/17/00/NAM_221_2012071700_F24_SHRM_500_MB.png
ENERGY Helicity is kind of NNY into southern Maine ..and Helicity is also at 300 (and above further NE) in the same region . With the EHI and Helicity we are going to introduce a 2% tornado chance into the region of NNY into Maine..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/17/00/NAM_221_2012071700_F24_EHI_3000_M.png
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/17/00/NAM_221_2012071700_F24_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
Looking at the surface expected for about an hour from now you see a cold front dropping thru the Midwest..
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/91fwbgus.gif
Which turns into a stationary front across the west..
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/92fwbgus.gif
It is these fronts along with their associated troughs that will serve as the trigger for severe weather potential. In the west we are mainly looking at strong wind gusts with more garden variety type storms...
Day 2 will be next but we are not going to include a discussion with that one until later in the evening..