July 23rd Severe Weather Outlook

July 23rd Severe Weather Outlook
Looking at the surface map anticipated for 06 Z (2 AM)
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/91fwbgus.gif
We see low pressure across the southern tier of Canada with a cold front that extends to the south and then west across the Midwest to a warm front. This cold front is going to push off to the south and the east. In the northeast we will have amplification of a trough.
Temperatures are going to be from 80 into the 90s with dew points in the 60-70 range. The humidity will be increasing across portions of the mid Atlantic..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/23/00/NAM_221_2012072300_F18_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/23/00/NAM_221_2012072300_F18_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
Convective Available Potential Energy will be from 500 to 3000 depending on where you are located..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/23/00/NAM_221_2012072300_F18_CAPE_SURFACE.png
Lift Index will be 0 to negative 6 depending on where you are located..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/23/00/NAM_221_2012072300_F24_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png
SHEAR will be from about 25-50 knots
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/23/00/NAM_221_2012072300_F24_SHRM_500_MB.png
The Nam is showing the EHI to be particularly high across the Ohio region. At the very least this should indicate super cell potential..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/23/00/NAM_221_2012072300_F24_EHI_3000_M.png
Helicity is also high in this area.
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/23/00/NAM_221_2012072300_F24_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
With the EHI as high as what the NAM is indicating we are going to have to place a 2% tornado chance across Ohio into Western PA. If you are in these regions keep an eye tuned to the sky and a ear to your favorite weather source..