July 15th Severe Weather Outlook

July 15th Severe Weather Outlook
Today is another day where we think that the main threat will be garden variety and heavy rain with these garden variety thunderstorms. Some of these thunderstorms will have the potential to go severe as well with winds and hail being the main threats.
Temperatures are going to be anywhere from 70 to as high as 100 degrees depending on where you live..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/15/00/NAM_221_2012071500_F18_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
Dew Points are going to be between 60-70 degrees across the areas highlight with potential for severe
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/15/00/NAM_221_2012071500_F24_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
CAPE or Convective Available Potential Energy is about 500-3500 depending on where you are located..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/15/00/NAM_221_2012071500_F24_CAPE_SURFACE.png
Lift Index is only around 0 to negative 4 depending on where you are located
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/15/00/NAM_221_2012071500_F24_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png
SHEAR is lacking in the Northeast but greatest at 40-60 knots to the northern zone..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/15/00/NAM_221_2012071500_F24_SHRM_500_MB.png
Energy helicity Index is showing to be around 4 across Northern Dakota
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/15/00/NAM_221_2012071500_F24_EHI_3000_M.png
Helicity is showing to be above 400 as well in the same location
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/15/00/NAM_221_2012071500_F24_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
Normally when we see shear of 40-60 knots and high EHI and high Helicity we will issue a Tornado chance and in this instance we are going to go with a 2% chance over the Dakota region..
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/91fwbgus.gif
At the surface we have a cold front draped across the northern region with low pressure moving out of the Montana region off towards the NE while the front will become somewhat stationary across the region. This will serve as the trigger for severe in that part of the region..
For the east/northeast it will be a trough moving south south westwards from the great lakes region. Again ..with this particular severe outlook in the east northeast we think that the main threat will be the heavy rain with PWATS in the 1-2 inch range..