July 12th Severe Weather Outlook
The heat that was in place ..that broke record high temperatures across the east has let up. However..the heat is getting ready to return once again and in some locations it is as if there never was a break from the heat to begin with.
Temperatures today across the USA are going to be 80 to about 100 degrees..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/12/00/NAM_221_2012071200_F18_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
Dew Points across the severe zone will be in the 60-70 range.
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/12/00/NAM_221_2012071200_F24_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
CAPE across the region will be 500 to about 3000
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/12/00/NAM_221_2012071200_F24_CAPE_SURFACE.png
LIFT Index will be 0 to about negative 6 across the region
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/12/00/NAM_221_2012071200_F24_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png
The one ingredient that will be lacking however is shear in the severe zone..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/12/00/NAM_221_2012071200_F24_SHRM_500_MB.png
ENERGY HELICITY Index..Isolated locations are around 1..This indicates that super cells are possible.
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/12/00/NAM_221_2012071200_F24_EHI_3000_M.png
HELICITY is also not all that favorable for anything beyond super cell potential..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/12/00/NAM_221_2012071200_F24_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
Across the southeast there will be mainly the threat of heavy rain but its possible that there could be some isolated severe .
At the surface..
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/91fwbgus.gif
Low pressure is going to be moving across southern Canada and dragging a cold front across the severe zone. This front will bring the potential for severe in the area highlighted.
Across the southeast a stationary front with an area of low pressure across Ark will be responsible for heavy rain potential and isolated severe!
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