July 24th Severe Weather Outlook
Temperatures are going to be warm to hot again across the central part of the US into the Mid Atlantic region with temperatures in the 8-90 + range.
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/24/00/NAM_221_2012072400_F18_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
Dew points are going to be in the 60-70 degree range..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/24/00/NAM_221_2012072400_F24_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
Convective Available potential Energy is 500 to about 4000 depending on where you are located
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/24/00/NAM_221_2012072400_F24_CAPE_SURFACE.png
Lift Index is 0 to negative 7 depending on where you are located ..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/24/00/NAM_221_2012072400_F24_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png
Shear is going to be 25- 50 knots depending on where you are located..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/24/00/NAM_221_2012072400_F24_SHRM_500_MB.png
Super cells are definitely a possibility with a tornado potential ..generally along and ahead of the front with the EHI being at one or above..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/24/00/NAM_221_2012072400_F24_EHI_3000_M.png
Greatest Helicity will be over Minnesota region ..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/24/00/NAM_221_2012072400_F24_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
Looking at the surface the cold front is approaching western PA as of 2 AM.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/91fwbgus.gif
By 12 Z not much progress will have been made by this cold front as it is still in the vicinity of western PA and to the north of the rest of Pa . A warm front will be moving across the state of Maine.. it will be this front that will be the trigger for severe weather potential across the zone highlighted.. Winds and hail will be the main threat but we are going to introduce a 2% tornado chance as well due to the EHI...
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