July 31st Severe Weather Outlook

July 31st Severe Weather Outlook
Temperatures once again are going to continue to be on the hot side with the range between 80 degrees and up into the 90s....
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/31/00/NAM_221_2012073100_F18_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
Dew Points are going to be in the 60-70 range with the exception of further north in that zone they will be on the lower side..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/31/00/NAM_221_2012073100_F24_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
CAPE or Convective Available Potential Energy will be between 500-4000 depending on where you are located..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/31/00/NAM_221_2012073100_F24_CAPE_SURFACE.png
Lift index will be from about 0 to negative 8 depending on where you are located..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/31/00/NAM_221_2012073100_F24_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png
SHEAR will be anywhere from 30-50 knots depending on where you are located
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/31/00/NAM_221_2012073100_F24_SHRM_500_MB.png
HELICITY is virtually a non factor today..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/31/00/NAM_221_2012073100_F24_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
EHI however is above 1 across the southeast as well as across Indiana..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/31/00/NAM_221_2012073100_F24_EHI_3000_M.png
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/91fwbgus.gif
At the surface , one front extends from the lakes back to a low pressure over Montana. Another front is north to south along the Carolina coast line with a low pressure off the coast of DE with the front going south and then west/north west to a low over western TN. It will be these fronts along with the associated impulses moving along the fronts that will bring the chance for severe storms and heavy rains.