July 14th Severe Weather Outlook

July 14th Severe Weather Outlook
Over all things are looking like they are going to be a low chance for severe with garden variety thunderstorms and heavy rain being the main threats. Temperatures are going to be in the 70 to 90 + degree range with the highest temps occurring into the central part of the USA and also SE PA thru NYC..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/14/00/NAM_221_2012071400_F18_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
Dew points will be highest over the east with 60-70 degrees..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/14/00/NAM_221_2012071400_F24_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
CAPE is going to be about 500 to about 3000 depending on where you are located..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/14/00/NAM_221_2012071400_F24_CAPE_SURFACE.png
LIFT index will be 0 to about negative 6 depending on where you are located
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/14/00/NAM_221_2012071400_F24_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png
Surface to 500 MB Bulk shear is going to be very minimal with the greatest 30-40 knots across the small area in the NW at 30-40 knots
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/14/00/NAM_221_2012071400_F24_SHRM_500_MB.png
ENERGY HELICITY index is under 1 in essentially all locations
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/14/00/NAM_221_2012071400_F24_EHI_3000_M.png
HELICITY is also under 400 across all regions..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/14/00/NAM_221_2012071400_F24_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
Time sensitive image
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/vis-l.jpg
Present cloud cover and present moisture will also play a role in hindering severe weather aspect. Across the region in the NW ..we will have a cut off upper level low. For the region in the east it will be an elongated upper level trough that will be moving east southeast that will bring the chance for thunderstorms /possible severe. Any severe that occurs should be limited to winds and hail.