Severe Weather outlook for July 4th Weather Discussion.. If it sounds like a broken record in regards to temperatures..well that is really because it is. Before we get into temperatures ..we want to take the time to wish Everyone A Happy 4th of July that is in the USA! Temperatures once again are going to be on the hot side with high temperatures between 80 and into the 100's. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/04/00/NAM_221_2012070400_F18_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png .. In addition to this we are talking about Dew points in the 60-70 range so it is going to be even hotter yet to the skin! Please drink plenty of water... http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/04/00/NAM_221_2012070400_F24_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png ... CAPE across the region is 500-4000 depending on where you reside in the zone. Majority of PA is red in color meaning 3000 + ..http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/04/00/NAM_221_2012070400_F24_CAPE_SURFACE.png...Ample LIFT across the region with the LI down to negative 11 ..http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/04/00/NAM_221_2012070400_F24_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png ... SHEAR is one thing lacking across PA at only about 25 knots and in other areas it is to 40 knots.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/04/00/NAM_221_2012070400_F24_SHRM_500_MB.png ... EHI is also high across E PA ..http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/04/00/NAM_221_2012070400_F24_EHI_3000_M.png ... However..HELICITY is lacking .. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/04/00/NAM_221_2012070400_F24_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png .. At the surface... http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/91fwbgus.gif A batch of mainly Non Severe storms is moving thru western PA and central PA at the present time. By 00z later tonight there will be a cold front approaching the region. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/94fwbgus.gif and another cold front will be crossing the Midwest area (guidance slowed this second front down which is why no severe happened in the mid west yesterday)..these frontal systems will be the trigger for severe weather potential.. In the Northeast we have some difference in the guidance..on one hand the NAM despite parameters lacks moisture.. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znam850mbTSLPp06024.gif On the other hand the GFS .. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs850mbTSLPp06024.gif ..So.. because it is a holiday we decided to use a blend this time of the guidance being the SREF/GFS and NAM has less weighting other then using it to show the parameters. As you can see GFS is not lacking in CAPE either..http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfsSurfaceCapeCINS024.gif Stay safe and Have a Happy 4th of July! We will be here all day after 12 noon to watch for any development of the storms!
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