July 6th Severe Weather Outlook
First we want to start this off by saying that the next two days it is going to continue to be HOT and in the east it will become perhaps unbearable on Saturday. A heat wave has been taking place from the central to the southeast and south central into the Mid Atlantic region and this is going to continue at least into Saturday. There after things will change.
Temperatures today across the areas mentioned above are going to be HOT. Temperatures will be from 80 once again into the 100's.
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/06/00/NAM_221_2012070600_F24_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
In addition to the HOT temperatures it is going to be humid with dew points between 60 and 70 degrees.
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/06/00/NAM_221_2012070600_F24_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
CAPE or Convective Potential Energy across the region will be from 500 to about 3500.
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/06/00/NAM_221_2012070600_F24_CAPE_SURFACE.png
LIFT INDEX will be from 0 to about -8 depending on where you live across the two severe zones.
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/06/00/NAM_221_2012070600_F24_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png
The greatest SHEAR is going to be across the 15% zone which is expected to be to 60 knots across that zone.
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/06/00/NAM_221_2012070600_F24_SHRM_500_MB.png
ENERGY HELICITY INDEX across the 15% region is as high as 3
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/06/00/NAM_221_2012070600_F24_EHI_3000_M.png
HELICITY is actually as high as 500 across the same general region..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/06/00/NAM_221_2012070600_F24_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
At the surface we have a frontal system going across the northern tier of the USA with a low pressure area located over South Dakota.This turns into a cold front going across Lower Michigan.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/91fwbgus.gif
This low pressure area will make its way off to the east northeast and serve as a trigger for severe weather along the stationary front..
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