July 22nd Severe Weather Outlook ..http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/91fwbgus.gif ..Looking at the surface map expected for 6 Z (2 AM) we see the stationary front still along the southeast part of the USA..across the Midwest you see a cold front ..extending back west to a low pressure over south Dakota . You also see a low pressure over the southern tier of Canada with a front extending south of there. The low pressure in the southern tier of Canada will be moving east and this will bring a warm front thru the lakes ..followed by a cold front .. Temperatures today are going to start to warm back up in the east and continue to be warm in the central part of the country. Temperatures will be in the 80s and 90s.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/22/00/NAM_221_2012072200_F18_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png .. Dew points in the Midwest to the lakes and in the southeast will be in the 60-70 degree range..http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/22/00/NAM_221_2012072200_F24_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png .... Convective available potential energy will be anywhere from about 500 to 3000 .. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/22/00/NAM_221_2012072200_F24_CAPE_SURFACE.png..Lift index will be from 0 to about negative 8 .. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/22/00/NAM_221_2012072200_F24_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png ... SHEAR will be 30-50 knots across the lakes region as well as the area out west.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/22/00/NAM_221_2012072200_F24_SHRM_500_MB.pngShear however will be lacking in the southeast ..where there is a lower chance at severe.. EHI is above 1 especially from Northern WI back into MN ..http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/22/00/NAM_221_2012072200_F24_EHI_3000_M.png ...HELICITY is also 250 + in these regions.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/22/00/NAM_221_2012072200_F24_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png ... With the EHI and Helicity in the locations above we are going to be going with a 2% tornado chance in that region.
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