Severe Weather Outlook for July 2nd .. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/91fwbgus.gif At the surface... a cold front will be moving off the east coast with a warm front extending back westwards from the cold front.. As the cold front moves east further off the coast the warm front will be pushing northwards.. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/92fwbgus.gif By 18 Z low pressure will be located across the Dakotas http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/93fwbgus.gif..It will be this frontal system that will once again serve as the focus for severe weather which is almost a carbon copy of the region from yesterday with some slight alterations in PA and the Northeast.. Looking at severe Parameters and temperatures. Well seems like a broken record being repeated but it is going to continue to be a hot day across vast majority of the country.. with high temperatures once again from 80 to the 100 degree or slightly above range.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/02/00/NAM_221_2012070200_F18_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png ... In addition to being hot it will be sticky/humid with dew points in the 60-70 degree range http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/02/00/NAM_221_2012070200_F24_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png ... CAPE or convective potential energy may be over done in the SE with a isolated locale showing up to 6000 but the minimum is 500..http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/02/00/NAM_221_2012070200_F24_CAPE_SURFACE.png .... LIFT Index is 0 to about negative 10 depending on where you reside.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/02/00/NAM_221_2012070200_F24_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png.. SHEAR is 30 to about 50 knots but kind of marginal across parts of the SE. These areas would be lower risk severe where as the higher or better chance of severe would be where the greater Shear is allocated. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/02/00/NAM_221_2012070200_F24_SHRM_500_MB.png ... ENERGY HELICITY index is greatest across the VA/ Carolina coast area and then up in the Midwest region.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/02/00/NAM_221_2012070200_F24_EHI_3000_M.png .. HELICITY the greatest areas are essentially the same as the EHI ...but the greatest is up in Minnesota. So from Wisconsin into Minnesota and Back into North Dakota we will place a 2 % chance of tornado's.. As well as in the eastern parts of VA, Carolina region ..Other wise the main threats will be winds, large hail and heavy rains!
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