July 19th Severe Weather Outlook..

July 19th Severe Weather Outlook..
The moderate risk never came to pass but there was a widespread amount of storms. They fell apart as they headed into SE PA and SNJ but re intensified further south of there.. regardless it was a pretty active and awesome day for severe weather.
Whenever you have a bolt just miss your roof of your porch and your mother in law..it really makes one look at the power behind the storm!
Temperatures today are going to be a touch cooler into the NE and eastern PA where they will only be 80-90 and in the 70s further Northeast... further west where the severe weather should be Ohio and west (greatest threat) temps are going to be in the 90s..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/19/00/NAM_221_2012071900_F18_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
Dew points are still going to be warm across the region with dew points in the 60-70 degree range..
CAPE or convective available potential energy is 500-3000 depending on where you are located..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/19/00/NAM_221_2012071900_F18_CAPE_SURFACE.png
Lift index looks to be from 0 to about -10 across the Dakotas (perhaps a little more negative in that region)
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/19/00/NAM_221_2012071900_F18_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png
One ingredient that looks to be lacking from the surface to the 500 mb level is shear except for the region around the Dakotas..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/19/00/NAM_221_2012071900_F18_SHRM_500_MB.png
However this will be increasing by evening time..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/19/00/NAM_221_2012071900_F24_SHRM_500_MB.png
NAM is really showing some decent Energy Helicity Index..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/19/00/NAM_221_2012071900_F24_EHI_3000_M.png
HELICITY is fairly high as well especially along the lakes..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/19/00/NAM_221_2012071900_F24_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
At the surface , a cold front has made its way to almost the PA/MD border
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/91fwbgus.gif
This front has become stationary and extends back to the west.. Low pressure over Indiana and another over Ohio will move along this stationary front. By 18 Z this stationary front is going to start lifting back towards the NE as a warm front..
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/93fwbgus.gif
And then become stationary once again...
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/94fwbgus.gif
It will be this front that the storms tend to use as a FOCI for development. Once again heavy rains will be a threat along with winds and hail. With the EHI in place we are going to go with 2% tornado chance ( we really SHOULD go 5% ) from Ohio to the south to KY...
Once again stay tuned and we will be here with all coverage!