Severe Outlook For July 3rd 2012
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/91fwbgus.gif
We are going to start off with looking at the surface map depicted as of 06 Z (2am) one hour from now. Low pressure in Canada with a cold front trailing to the Southwest to another low over the Dakotas. From the low in Canada extends a warm front to the south east. By 12 Z the warm front slips east a little and the cold front moves east a little.. By 18 Z the cold front is now approaching upper Michigan in the western side.. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/93fwbgus.gif It will be this frontal system that will once again be the focus point for severe weather potential.
A look at the severe weather parameters across the area along with the temperatures.. Once again it is going to be a very HOT day across the vast majority of the country from the central states towards the east. Temperatures are going to be from 80 to in the 100's once again..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/03/00/NAM_221_2012070300_F18_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
In addition to this the Dew Points will be in the 60-70 degree range which will make the air temperature feel even hotter. (Ready for winter yet? We are!)
CAPE or CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY..
Anywhere from 500-4000 depending on where you are in the severe zone..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/03/00/NAM_221_2012070300_F24_CAPE_SURFACE.png
Lift Index is 0 to negative 10 depending once again on where you reside.
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/03/00/NAM_221_2012070300_F24_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png
SHEAR
Greatest wind shear which is 50-70 knots is actually back over the Montana region. Elsewhere we are only looking at marginal shear of less then 30 to no more then 40 knots..
EHI is pretty impressive along the northern extent of the severe zone..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/03/00/NAM_221_2012070300_F24_EHI_3000_M.png
HELICITY is highest back into the Dakotas..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/07/03/00/NAM_221_2012070300_F24_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
Due to this EHI we are going to place a 2% tornado chance back across the Montana region to the Dakotas also across all of MI and Wisconsin.. Otherwise heavy rains and Winds and hail will be the main threats!
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