Friday, October 1, 2010

Otto Not Happening Any Time Soon!

Reading some talk around the net about OTTO and this is in reference to Invest 97 L.

20101001.0415.goes-13.ir.97L.INVEST.25kts.1009mb.12.5N.53.1W.100pc

wv-l

As you can tell Invest 97 L has not strengthened at all and is still at 1009 mbs and 25 KT. Currently it is very disorganized despite the convection. You actually have two tropical waves that are very close to one another that they have basically merged together. When ever this happens you have two waves competing for the same energy source. Creating a massive area of moisture but due to its size it is very difficult to spin up and organize into a tropical cyclone.

Shear is about 10-20 knots across the system as of 03 Z.

shear

Presently as of 03 Z the system completely lacks convergence ..however the divergence is decent.

converge

The area is also not residing in any vorticity.

vorticity

Steering currents suggest that this should continue to head off in a WNW direction.

wg8dlm1

Any development of this system will continue to be on the slow side due to the factors mentioned above.

Unless conditions change the next update on this will be in 24 hrs.

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