Up until now I have not covered the development of Paula do to taking the needed time to issue the winter forecast which was issued yesterday. Now that that has been issued it allows me to turn some focus to the tropical system Hurricane Paula.
Pretty much I think that Paula has gotten to the level of strength that is going to be achievable for the system and from this point on it should start to take a downwards turn. Pretty much the atmosphere ahead of Paul is becoming quite hostile. Shear currently is around 20 knots and is much higher to its N . The best convergence and divergence currently resides NE of the system,
Being that this has been a very tiny microcane or hurricane ..they generally are much quicker at falling apart due to shear. Even moderate shear can be detrimental on a microcane.
This systems other enemy will be the dry air that will be advancing on it.
And finally the land interaction and again because of its small size this will fall apart quite rapidly once it actually begins. I would say about 48 –60 hrs in that frame this system should actually dissipate.
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