Tropical Update-Talk Of Otto Resurfaces!

It is amazing that once the National Hurricane Center upgrades an invest area to 40 % how quickly the talk of OTTO being born comes about.

Basically talk is OTTO will be born late tomorrow about 24 hours from now.

Lets disregard the fact that we do not have a tropical depression at this point and time to even get the name OTTO.

Lets disregard the fact that this invest was at 40% chance of development in the past and slipped all the way back down to 10% before coming back to 40%.

So lets look at what is actually happening..

The area with the greatest convection is actually well east of the Antille islands and has absolutely nothing to do with the area that is actually the invest that is creating the discussion.

So where is this invest center located? Well this is where it was located as of 18 Z

As you can see at that time the center was extremely close to land.00z data has not updated yet but it should be pretty obvious that with such close proximity to land that any development would be slow to occur. Notice also that shear is 10-20 knots over this area which again is an indication that development would be slow to occur.

However there are other factors to look at as well and that would be the convergence and divergence and the vorticity related to the system in question.

As of 21 Z one can see that there is some convergence but the divergence is completely lacking with the system and the best vorticity actually lies east of the system.

As of 8 PM the system was generally moving off to the NW. This implies that the center is actually going to travel across land which will also cause any development to be slow.

In other words..with the conditions the way they are ..the likely hood of this becoming OTTO in the next 24 hrs are quite low.

The first step would to become a Tropical depression and as of right now the National Hurricane Center is saying there is a 60% chance that this will not become a cyclone in the next 48 hrs.

So the question needs to be asked is where is all the talk of OTTO being born in the next 24hrs coming from?

The answer is pretty clear that its not coming from the NHC or the present data but rather those hoping that another storm forms because the tropics have been quiet for some time now.