Tropical Depression # 17 is a possibility if conditions continue to improve across the system. The invest has dropped 1 MB in pressure down to 1006 MBS from 1007 mbs. However..this is still a 25 KT invest.
Convection has increased but as one can also tell when looking at the IR loop above that the northern part of the system is getting sheared off.
When looking at the WV loop above the next thing that one realizes is that there is an impressive amount of dry air off to its NE.
Now as of 3 Z ..DATA should update shortly for 6 Z..shear was presently still 10-20 knots across the center of the invest. Convergence and divergence have slightly increased ..however the vorticity still remains rather stretched out and broad.
So some of the surrounding environment has improved..while others still continue to be less desirable. If these conditions continue to favorably increase then by Wednesday we could be looking at a Tropical Depression forming.
However..to say OTTO at this point would be going well beyond what the data suggests and by data i mean current environment and not modeling.
We still need a depression to form first.
At this point it seems that all guidance is in agreement on this not coming anywhere near the East Coast.
So at this point and time the hurricane season has failed to deliver a landfalling cyclone on the east coast which is quite contrary to what some pro forecasters were expecting.
Currently as well as of today the Northern Hemispheric ACE still remains well below normal and hurricane season is slowly closing to an end….
No comments:
Post a Comment