Time for October Musings In Relation To Winter!

Well with it being October now, it is once again time to remind people of the importance of October from the KPHL to the KNYC areas. The following is research that has been provided by Pro Met Tony (Rainshadow) from the NWS..

If October is cooler than normal, ensuing winters
with a nina (11 times) 6 below the median (3 < 30F), 5 above the median
enso neutral (16 times) 10 below the median (1 <30F), 6 above the median
with a nino (18 times) 14 below the median (5 <30F), 4 above the median
If October is normal, ensuing winters
with a nina (13 times) 9 below the median (3 < 30F), 4 above the median
enso neutral (18 times) 11 below the median (1 <30F), 7 above the median
with a nino (17 times) 8 below the median (1 <30F), 9 above the median
If October is warmer than normal, ensuing winters
with a nina (19 times) 6 below the median (0 < 30F, 95-96 coldest), 13 above the median
enso neutral (17 times) 3 below the median (0 <30F), 13 above the median, 1 at the median
with a nino (7 times) 2 below the median (0 <30F), 5 above the median

So, considering this winter is going to be a La Nina winter we really need not be concerned with the stats for neutral or El Nino. So when reading the above we see the following:

If October is cooler then normal then 6 out of 11 ended up below normal temperature wise from KPHL to KNYC.

If October is normal temperature wise then 9 out of 13 winters following were below normal.

If October is warmer then normal then only 6 out of 19 ended up below normal.

So being that its now the month of October..it is now time to keep an eye on what happens with the overall average temperature. Out of 24 winter seasons when a below normal october occurred 15 out of those 24 were colder then normal winters. Leaving 9 winters that were either normal or above.

So if October ends up colder then normal then odds favor a colder then normal winter from KPHL to KNYC region.

This is where we currently stand at the present moment..

So those wanting a below normal winter will want to see October come out at normal to below normal.

Real Wx Services will be issuing there final winter outlook in the first week of November.