The above is the most recent image of 99L. The National Hurricane Center has a 30 % chance of this system developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours.
This will not be the first time that we here at R.W.S have disagreed with the NHC and we will show you why.
First of all the image above tonight is the first time that the system is showing any real type of convection forming and sustaining. Secondly, the shear across this system has lightened up to around 10 knots and there is an anticylone very close to this system.
Another factor to take into consideration is that also the first time since this system became highlighted for developing it has become embedded within decent convergence as well as divergence. Previously it was completely lacking a convergence zone.
Another thing is that there is finally an area of vorticity that the system is actually in for the first time as well. So this also shows that the system is becoming better organized.
All these factors point to a system that is slowly organizing. All these systems also point to the factor that the environment is conducive for development.
Currently the system is actually lifting off towards the North NorthWest which means it is actually avoiding interaction with land.
Real Wx Services puts the chances of this developing into a Tropical Depression over the next 48 hours as 50%. This is all dependent on whether or not the system can continue to maintain the convection. If conditions remain the way they are then this very well could be a depression before the day is out.
Stay tuned for further updates on this potential developing situation!
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