Here at Real Wx Services we were unable to make the call for this turning to a Tropical Storm before it occurred due to the lead forecaster having to be at the hospital for his wifes surgery. Some things just take priority over the weather, especially when it involves health of a loved one.
However. with that aside. Richard was born and since the time of upgrade has not really been able to get his act together and strengthen.
We are looking at a latest image of Tropical Storm Richard. As of 18 Z pressure was at 1006 mbs and this may be kind of low considering Recon reports showed pressure at 1010 mbs. So this is not a system that is in a hurry to get its act together and there is some question as to whether or not this will become a hurricane before it starts to interact with land.
So, we like to turn to the environment to see if we can get any kind of clues as to what may happen.
Here we see the anticyclone is actually south of Richard and shear has actually increased to the range of 10-20 knots as of 15 Z (18Z has not yet updated)…This could be the reason that on visible satellite the system is beginning to take on a more ragged appearance.
Another factor that continues to pose developmental problems for Richard is the amount of dry air and this can be seen on the WV loop above.
Other then the shear & dry air, this system virtually has a favorable environment for developing. Divergence and convergence is decent..the system is in the best vorticity area.
So I think over the next 24 hrs development of this will continue to be relatively slow.
As for track of the system it is currently moving W and should continue to move west and eventually WNW with perhaps potential landfall in Belize..
Stay tuned for further updates on Tropical Storm Richard
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