Just as Real Wx Service expected we do indeed now have Subtropical Depression #17
Looking at the images above you can see complete interaction between the Upper Level Low and the depression. You can also see the dry air wrapping in and around the center. This is a normal process occurring and I would not be completely surprised to see the convection die off either in the rebuilding process.
Presently the system has very little in the way of convergence to work with ..and there is some weak divergence. Shear is also on the low side of 5-10 knots. The biggest obstacle to overcome will be the dry air if it can work it out in time to intensify before it reaches the cooler waters,
If it can work the dry air out then I would not be surprised to see this intensify quickly..
Will have another update tonight after 1 AM
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