Tropical Storm Otto

Interestingly enough yesterday OTTO finally began to look more tropical then subtropical and hence the transformation into Tropical Storm Otto. Otto went to a storm void of any convection to a storm that is now bursting with convection. Convergence and divergence is good and shear is relatively low as well across the system.

However, there is some heavier shear off to its NW. However, the system is heading towards the NE ..However..within the next 24 hrs the system will start to be traveling over cooler waters so this should cause the system to start to weaken somewhat.

Since this system poses no threat to the USA and this is out over the open atlantic ocean and moving NE this will be the last update on this particular system.

Interesting to note that the latest DVORAK still has this intensity wise lower then what NHC has it as.

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis ----- 
     Date :  08 OCT 2010    Time :   034500 UTC
      Lat :   24:09:58 N     Lon :   66:28:53 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                2.8 /1002.0mb/ 41.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T# 
                2.8     3.0     4.0

     Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP :  +0.0mb

 Center Temp : -78.6C    Cloud Region Temp : -77.6C

 Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION 

 Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION 

 Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC      
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC  

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr 
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

Another interesting thing to note is that SATCON also is alot lower then what NHC has this listed as..

CURRENT ESTIMATE


Date (yyyymmddhh): 2010100720


SATCON (2mem): MSLP = 997 hPa    MSW = 40 kt

AMSU is also lower then NHC estimate intensity at 43 KT..

So there is no doubt that this system has indeed strengthened but nothing seems to actually support 50 KT. Regardless this system will continue to move off to the NE and have no effect over anything but the open ocean waters until potentially effecting the Azores as an extropical storm with gale force winds.