The above is 98 L . National Hurricane center has this at a 60% chance of development due to an environment conducive to developing. So its important that we look at its environment.
The following is as of 6 z
Several things to notice. Shear is at a current level of 20-30 knots across the region with decent divergence but no convergence and the best convergence is NE of the invest. The vorticity is stretched out and elongated from N to South and there is quite the abundance of dry air to thr NW of the system as well as to the south of the system. These factors above are not quite conducive for development.
Another factor against development currently of this system is the MJO which is actually in phase 5..Better known as tropical killer.
So, if there is going to be any development of this system it will be extremely slow to occur.
Global models actually keep shear quite high around this system and the ECM for example never even really develops invest 98 more then a very weak tropical system that gets sheared out and decoupled and essentially dissipated.
More continuous updates and more about the winter ahead starting tonight after 1 AM …
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