A look at invest 97 L. 97 L thus far has not been able to organize itself. For those that have been following the discussion on this invest we have talked about things that were a negative factor towards development.
Some of these things actually continue to be a problem for this system. And we will look at these in a little bit but first of all I want to introduce something else that may be keeping this back from developing at this point and time.
The above is the TCHP or tropical cyclone heat potential. Now why is this important? Well the role of the ocean in the development of TC formation is largely known and accepted and there is a strong link or correlation between high TCHP and formation and intensity of cyclones. Generally you want the TCHP to be above 80 and as you can see the area where this invest is is actually closer to 60. So this could be another factor in why this has not been able to develop.
Looking at the other factors involved..Shear looks to be generally 5-10 knots…which is relatively light and would be favorable for development.
Convergence and divergence is relatively decent at this time as well.
Overall, at this present time I think the thing that is hindering this from developing at the present time is the low TCHP which has become low due to the monsoonal type trough (AKA Depression #16 Nicole) .
Steering currents suggest that this invest should continue to move WNW until it reaches Hispanola. From there it appears that it should move more on a North to perhaps NNE track.
Regardless of development this will be providing some decent rain and gusty winds for the Lesser Antilles. Any development will be slow to occur. Potential development may occur once near Hispanola so this is something we will have to keep an eye on thru the days ahead.
Next update again will be 24 hrs from now less conditions warrant an update sooner!
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