Real Wx Services: August 11th Severe Weather Outlook

Saturday, August 11, 2012

August 11th Severe Weather Outlook

August 11th Severe Weather Outlook
We had mentioned on Thursday night that we were not to impressed with the severe weather potential (referencing the E PA region ) due to the cloud cover..low instability and the fact that the models were

showing this to occur during prime daylight heating time.. which would limit the heating which limits the instability..
Before we left the PC..we posted that the greatest parameters were over the SNE area and as the SPC reports show that is indeed where the severe ended up including two tornado's. E PA saw no severe and here in Allentown we did not see a drop of rain..
The cold front still has yet to cross the area. This is not expected to occur until between 12 Z (8 am) and 18 Z (2 AM)
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/93fwbgus.gif
So essentially this means that we could have the chance for showers and thunderstorms , with some isolated severe possible any time thru the early afternoon until the front crosses..
CAPE is not impressive only 500-1000 and SHEAR is the greatest at 30 + knots..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/11/00/NAM_221_2012081100_F18_SHRM_500_MB.png
Winds would be the main threat..

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