Real Wx Services: August 3rd Severe Weather Outlook

Thursday, August 2, 2012

If you were in the east and you did not realize the heat starting to return into the region yesterday you will begin to feel it today. If you are in the central part of the USA then you are going to continue to experience the heat and the humidity.. Temperatures are going to be in the 80s and 90s ...http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/03/00/NAM_221_2012080300_F18_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png ..Dew Points will be in the 60 to 70 degree range .. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/03/00/NAM_221_2012080300_F24_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png .. Convective Available Potential Energy is going to be between 500-3000 depending on where you are.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/03/00/NAM_221_2012080300_F24_CAPE_SURFACE.png ... Lift Index will be from 0 to negative 7 depending on where you are located..http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/03/00/NAM_221_2012080300_F24_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png ... SHEAR will be anywhere between 30-50 knots ... http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/03/00/NAM_221_2012080300_F24_SHRM_500_MB.png ...EHI is at one or above across portions of the Midwest as well as portions of KY and TN... http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/03/00/NAM_221_2012080300_F24_EHI_3000_M.png ... Helicity is highest in the Midwest.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/03/00/NAM_221_2012080300_F24_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png ..With the greater Helicity and the EHI across the Midwest in that region we would place a tornado chance at 2% .. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/92fwbgus.gif ..At the surface it will be a stationary front that is across the SE into the KY/TN area and another front across the lakes region that is moving into the NE. This is the reason for including the NE in a severe potential but in that area it would be more isolated.. and there will be another frontal system emerging out of the Rocky Mountain regions.

Down to Earth Forecasting-What's The Difference?

Down to Earth Forecasting is a concept that I have created. Its a concept that bases forecasts of the weather on actual analysis of the weather models, patterns, signals, analogs etc. It does not tolerate wishcasting or hypecasting. Its goal is to provide forecasts that are 100% honest as well as, forecasts that are as close to accurate as possible!
We believe that if you teach others how to read weather models, how to pick up on weather patterns and the basic concepts of weather..that you can actually do away with wishcasting and hypecasting and have all forecasts based on REALITY!

Down to Earth Forecasting History & Team!

Down to Earth Forecasting was a concept that was originally called Bringing Weather Back To Reality! This concept basically implied that everywhere I went there was too much forecasting of what people wished for etc in there back yard. If the weather models called for 4 inches , people would be calling for a Blizzard! This type of forecasting is actually called wishcasting and is something that I have never been able to tolerate as a weather hobbyist. So i came up with the name of Bringing Weather Back to Reality which meant that I believed in making forecasts that were based on sound analysis of all weather parameters involved. I then decided the name was too long and hence changed BWBTR to Real Weather Services or R.W.S & the most recent change to Down To Earth Forecasting which we think is more suitable!

Down To Earth Forecasting will issue special weather statements when conditions and time permit for all types of weather from winter weather to summer weather and you will find that when we issue a statement it is always in ADVANCE of the NWS. This is something that we take pride in! Getting the word to our readers first and promptly.

Down To Earth Forecasting consists of Kevin Quigley & Rick Boucher & Creator and owner Matt Strouse. These three individuals make up Down To Earth Forecasting and one day will be a household name

Thursday, August 2, 2012

August 3rd Severe Weather Outlook

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