Let me start this off by saying that for those in the PA region..I am not exactly thrilled with the severe aspect for today. For starters, http://i973.photobucket.com/albums/ae219/theweathergod2010/RAD_MOS_NAT_8KM_N0R.gifthat is the current radar and you can see precipitation already moving in across the west towards the central part of the state. If this looks familiar it should..last time we were in a slight risk we had overnight convective rains which hindered and dampered the severe risk. The next problem becomes the temperatures.. Temperatures today are only going to be in the 70s with 80s further south.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/14/00/NAM_221_2012081400_F18_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.pngDewpoints will be in the 50s and 60s.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/14/00/NAM_221_2012081400_F18_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png ... CAPE or convective Potential Available energy is also not very impressive (PA) with 500 to about 350 in the southwest region.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/14/00/NAM_221_2012081400_F24_CAPE_90_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png ...Lift index is only 0 to negative 7 depending on where you are located.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/14/00/NAM_221_2012081400_F24_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png .. SHEAR is actually greatest over the western zone and very meager over the east areas.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/14/00/NAM_221_2012081400_F24_SHRM_500_MB.png .. Main threats will be winds and hail .. Again..we think that the precipitation moving across the region now (with its associated cloud cover) will more then likely hinder severe due to limiting the day time heating. This is especially the case across PA...
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