The above are three different views of Tropical Depression # 5 and on this end at Down To Earth Forecasting we are not very impressed with the development to this point or the appearance of the system.
As one can tell when looking at the steering currents it is still essentially caught up in the ITCZ.. this should keep it moving mainly westwards..
We think that part of the problem is that the system is taking in mid level dry air and the system is pretty much surrounded by dry air..
You can see that directly out in front of its pathway is pretty much dry air to be contending with. Another problem is that right now there is approximately 10-20 knots of shear across the system.
While shear is a necessary ingredient for severe thunderstorms it is a hindering factor for the developing Tropical cyclone. Generally you want to see an anti cyclone over top so that the shear is relatively light at 5 to 10 knots.
The system also is not in the best convergence zones or the best divergence area. Greatest divergence lies off to the west..
So as you can see the system has some things that it needs to over come before it is able to develop any further. So development will be slow and it will not be until after the dry air problem is resolved..
We will have another update on this later today along with expected track over the next 5 days!
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