Severe Weather Outlook for August 9th .. We want to reiterate the what could go wrong scenario for severe weather today..
A couple things in reference to tomorrows severe outlook..
#1 Current radar shows a lot of convective rains going on
. The models have been very well showing the chances of rainfall occurring in the over night hours. This can hinder severe weather for tomorrow.
#2.. The satellite shows yet another problem facing the severe weather tomorrow and that is because of the convective rains and storms occurring this evening..There is a lot of cloud cover in place. What this means is day time heating would be limited..which then limits the Convective Available potential energy... Which leads us to:
#3. Convective Available potential energy is a very meager 500-1000. #2 also leads us to the fourth point about tomorrow...
#4 Temperatures will also be limited due to cloud cover and due to convective rains keeping them in the 70s.
Temperatures like we said mainly in the 70s .. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/10/00/NAM_221_2012081000_F18_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
Dew Points
These will mainly be in the 60s across the severe zone in the east.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/10/00/NAM_221_2012081000_F18_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
As mentioned above CAPE is very meager... http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/10/00/NAM_221_2012081000_F24_CAPE_SURFACE.png
Lift in the atmosphere is also very meager with only 0 to about -4 till you go further south towards TX http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/10/00/NAM_221_2012081000_F21_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png
SHEAR
This is about the only real parameter that is working in our favor and that is between 30 and about 50 knots.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/10/00/NAM_221_2012081000_F21_SHRM_500_MB.png
Helicity
This is another parameter that is on the lacking side with about 150-250 .. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/10/00/NAM_221_2012081000_F21_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
EHI
Energy Helicity Index is greatest in Central PA which means that they have the potential to see some super cells in that area.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/10/00/NAM_221_2012081000_F21_EHI_3000_M.png
Low pressure will be moving to the NW of the region and pushing a warm front towards the region which will then be followed by a cold front. We would be alot more optimistic if we were able to get full sunshine but as pointed out at the beginning this does not look to be the case.
We think any threats will be winds and hail but the greatest threat will be heavy rains with high PWATS!
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