Real Wx Services: August 5th severe weather potential

Sunday, August 5, 2012

August 5th severe weather potential

Today will essentially be another hot and humid day. More so humid then "high" temperatures per say ...Temperatures are mainly going to be in the 80s...However the humidity is going to be high.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/22

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... Dew Points will be in the 60 to 70 degree range.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/05/00/NAM_221_2012080500_F18_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png ...Convective Available Potential energy looks to be from about 500 -3500 across the region..http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/05/00/NAM_221_2012080500_F18_CAPE_SURFACE.png... Lift Index or Lift in the atmosphere will be between 0 and -8 depending on where you are located.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/05/00/NAM_221_2012080500_F18_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png ... One thing that will be lacking is shear as it will be very marginal .. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/05/00/NAM_221_2012080500_F18_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png ... EHI is above 1 across Upstate NY and then down in KY (central and western) and also western TN.. Helicity however is a non factor.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/05/00/NAM_221_2012080500_F18_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png ..We are going to introduce a 2% risk of a isolated tornado in the locales mentioned above with the greater chance in upstate NY due to being closer to the better shear.. At the surface it will be a cold front approaching the region headed into the warm and unstable air mass. Any storms will contain winds with potential for hail and very heavy rain..

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