We were debating whether or not we wanted to do an update tonight on TD # 7. Essentially conditions with Tropical Depression #7 are the same now as they were 24 hours ago however with a few slight changes and that would be mainly in reference to the shear that is effecting the system. However before we get to the shear I want to point out the most major problem that is effecting and limiting development.
1. Dry air . There is an abundance of dry air around this system.
2. The second thing that is really plaguing this system is that we have had an increase in shear across the system and we will continue to see an increase in shear with this system.
Anywhere from 10 to 30 knots is currently across the system. And the shear tendency map shows that shear ahead of the system is just increasing..
European computer model fails to really develop this system. GFS fails to develop this system. Both these pieces of guidance open up TD# 7 and degenerate it to a tropical wave and then dissipation.
Meanwhile movement continues to be off to the west at a fast pace. This is because TD# 7 is being steered to the south of a subtropical ridge .. and this movement will continue over the next few days..
No significant strengthening is anticipated and we are heavily leaning towards the system regenerating to an open wave..
If need be we will update this again in 24 hours!
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