Real Wx Services: Severe Weather Outlook for August 9th..

Thursday, August 9, 2012

Severe Weather Outlook for August 9th..

Severe Weather Outlook for August 9th.. Temperatures are once again in parts of the region going to be on the warm to hot side ahead of the front with temperatures anywhere from the 70s in Ohio to the 80s and 90s elsewhere.. http://www.twis

terdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/09/00/NAM_221_2012080900_F18_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png

... Dew Points will be from the upper 50s to the upper 60s ..http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/09/00/NAM_221_2012080900_F24_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png ...Convective Available Potential Energy is anywhere between 500 and 3000 depending on where you are.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/09/00/NAM_221_2012080900_F24_CAPE_SURFACE.png .. Lift Index will be anywhere from 0 to negative 7 depending on where you are located .. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/09/00/NAM_221_2012080900_F24_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png Shear is going to be anywhere from 25-50 knots depending on where you are located.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/09/00/NAM_221_2012080900_F24_SHRM_500_MB.png .. HELICITY is really going to be a non issue... http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/08/09/00/NAM_221_2012080900_F24_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png ... EHI on the other hand is quite high from parts of Ohio west to Illinois and Indiana.. With the EHI in place we will go for a 2% tornado chance across that region (rather safe then sorry type scenario) Other wise the main threats will be wind and hail in the severe zone...

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Down to Earth Forecasting-What's The Difference?

Down to Earth Forecasting is a concept that I have created. Its a concept that bases forecasts of the weather on actual analysis of the weather models, patterns, signals, analogs etc. It does not tolerate wishcasting or hypecasting. Its goal is to provide forecasts that are 100% honest as well as, forecasts that are as close to accurate as possible!
We believe that if you teach others how to read weather models, how to pick up on weather patterns and the basic concepts of weather..that you can actually do away with wishcasting and hypecasting and have all forecasts based on REALITY!

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Down to Earth Forecasting was a concept that was originally called Bringing Weather Back To Reality! This concept basically implied that everywhere I went there was too much forecasting of what people wished for etc in there back yard. If the weather models called for 4 inches , people would be calling for a Blizzard! This type of forecasting is actually called wishcasting and is something that I have never been able to tolerate as a weather hobbyist. So i came up with the name of Bringing Weather Back to Reality which meant that I believed in making forecasts that were based on sound analysis of all weather parameters involved. I then decided the name was too long and hence changed BWBTR to Real Weather Services or R.W.S & the most recent change to Down To Earth Forecasting which we think is more suitable!

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Down To Earth Forecasting consists of Kevin Quigley & Rick Boucher & Creator and owner Matt Strouse. These three individuals make up Down To Earth Forecasting and one day will be a household name