Isaac The 3:45 AM Game Changer Confirmed!

A strange title for a blog post we do realize but by the time you finish reading this you will understand completely why we are naming the title the way we are.  So lets start this off with looking at the visible satellite loop for Isaac and I want the readers to click on the trop plot boxes and the lat/long box.. 

Isaac Visible Loop

Now with clicking on those boxes do you notice what we have been noticing and discussing on our facebook page all night?  This is travelling not only due west but also well south of the NHC 11 PM and 2 AM position ...but I can here some voices saying " But wait how do you know this or how did you know this?" 

First piece of evidence was the microwave image pass at 00z 

Notice the center around 15 N? This was the first piece that told us that the NHC was off. The second image that I am posting will now show the 11 PM NHC center with a little red square but look off to the SW of that square..

Now.. we are going to show the same two images side by side and you will notice how the white cloud tops which were -92 C are indeed in the same location as what the microwave image showed..

Now ..the game changer.. 
 RECON JUST CONFIRMED THAT THE CENTER IS 125-150 MILES SW of where NHC has it!! 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 07:20Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight i

n the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Observation Number: 03
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 6:55:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°03'N 69°35'W (15.05N 69.5833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 238 miles (383 km) to the S (175°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,420m (4,659ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 37kts (~ 42.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the SSW (211°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 116° at 38kts (From the ESE at ~ 43.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 168 nautical miles (193 statute miles) to the N/NNE (11°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,513m (4,964ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 10 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) in the north quadrant at 5:27:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 20°C (68°F) which was observed 71 nautical miles (82 statute miles) to the NNW (332°) from the flight level center

That's correct folks you are reading that correctly ..the center is 125 -150 miles further SW then what NHC had it . Now lets look at some water vapor images ...

As you can see this is quite now well south of the islands and has the potential to completely miss the islands of Hispanola and Cuba.. Now why is all this occurring? Again this can be answered by looking at some images from CIMSS... 

First we are looking at the steering currents..

As you can clearly see looking at the above image that the ridge stretches from the eastern Atlantic into the eastern part of the USA. This is clearly why Isaac has been moving essentially west and with a southward component. Tropical storms will always take the path of LEAST RESISTANCE!  

The next reason is the system is still rather weak and disorganized and is not  vertically stacked.. You can see this by looking at the following images..

These images were also the clue to the system being further south then what the National Hurricane Center had it.  In simple terms what happened is shear increased across the northern part of the system and the system relocated further to the SW..

And as you can see the shear is still increasing to the west northwest of the system and this is the reason that we have been saying this system will stay weak UNTIL it passes the islands...

Factor in that it is in that SW region that the best convergence and the divergence lies. And you have the reasons as to why Isaac has relocated further SW and why Isaac has been having trouble becoming vertically stacked and why Isaac has been remaining weak and disorganized. When a system is weak and disorganized it is subjected to the steering flow and this is why we have never bought into the East Coast Hurricane (up the coast) we have never bought into the east of Florida Hurricane and we have never bought into going up central part of Florida. It is all about synoptics, environment and climatology... It is not based on a single model run or an outlier model. 

So that brings us to the guidance... However..it has to be asked that since the center is further SW by a good 125-150 miles and the movement is more west ..whether any of the guidance tonight can be considered reliable...

However we will look at them..Only going to post the GGEM because the GGEM essentially lines up in the same location as the UKMET and the NOGAPS... Do not really like the UKMET siding with the GGEM and NOGAPS because these two are not very reliable with tropical cyclones..

GFS is below the GGEM and you can see that it has a very powerful system making landfall in the western Panhandle of Fl around the AL/FL border.. Again keep in mind that this was going off a further NE center location then what we actually have..

By the way in addition to what the GFS shows track wise it shows a category 3 at landfall which would be a major hurricane... 

Now the ECM actually did initialize the center more accurately with it around 15 N. Score one for the ECM and this is because (and many people forget) a high resolution model and this still gets fairly close to New Orleans ..

Now here is our concern.. with the center further southwest, and still relatively moving west (no real choice in that matter cause of the steering currents and the atmosphere) ..this could increase the potential of sliding south of Hispanola and Cuba. Which means less land interaction possible and less weakening from that less land interaction. It also means that this could shift the entire track towards the west ..perhaps around the Mississippi to LA border.. 

As you can see RECON has definitely located the center around 15 N. This could end up being a major game changer. We originally were going to issue a new map tonight however because of the game changer that we have been discussing all night .. we are going to hold off and wait for the next day of guidance and see what this new information does..  It really is going to be dependent on how long it continues to head on the west track before turning WNW but it has greatly increased the odds for a further west track...

Stay tuned as you can tell by our Facebook page (link in the beginning ) we have been ahead of even the National Hurricane center as well as majority of the weather outlets on Facebook!