The above images are of Tropical Depression # 7 which the NHC is essentially forecasting to become the next tropical storm..which would be named Gordon..
A ball of convection continues to persist near the center but the system is not able to strengthen any at the present time.
This would be due to dry air entrainment. You can see this dry air when looking at the water vapor image..
You can see the dry air that is to the north of the system and even to the west of the system. Whenever you have dry air around a system like this it causes the system to develop slower then if there was no dry air.
Wind shear is actually low at the present time between 5-10 knots ..however it is increasing out in front of the system as well..
On the wide view of the Atlantic when looking at the water vapor loop you can really see what we are talking about with the dry air issue..
Presently TD #7 is being driven by a ridge of High pressure to its north which is steering the system towards the west at a fairly rapid pace.
This general movement is agreed on by the guidance as well for the next several days..
After this time some of the guidance is suggesting that a weakness in the ridge may develop which would cause TD # 7 to begin to track more towards the WNW.
At the present time we see two problems that TD #7 is facing..
1. Dry air entrainment
2. Increasing shear!
These two could allow TD # 7 not to develop. So at the present time with those two factors in place we are looking at slower development.
IF TD #7 can survive thru the dry air entrainment and the increasing shear and make it to about 60 W..then we feel that we could be at that point looking at the next Tropical Storm…
NOAA has increased the total storms for the season , despite the increasing likely hood of an El Nino and in addition to the above we do have a wave presently coming off the coast of Africa which has a 30% chance of developing.
However..with that system if it develops to quickly and strengthens quicker then there will probably be a better chance for that system to recurve and stay harmlessly in the Atlantic.
We will update this in another 24 hours and if TD #7 survives we will then issue a map indicating where we think TD# 7 will be tracking..
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