Isaac Update ... West Track is Real!

First off we want to start this off by saying that if you have been following this blog we want to thank you. We try to put out the most accurate forecast possible based on the guidance that we have available and the synoptic weather pattern and with real time observations and images. 

We have stated from the beginning that we were not going with the eastern track or up the east coast , despite a couple model runs and despite some professional agencies stating other wise. It was quite clear and evident from our eyes and view point that the subtropical ridge was going to be to strong and the weakness was going to be to weak to have any real effect on Isaac..

In review we also mentioned that Isaac would weaken before beginning to restrengthen. People keep messaging and asking well what about intensity. Unfortunately, weather is not an exact science and the intensification process does not just depend on warm waters. You have to take the whole atmosphere surrounding the system into the equation. Could Isaac become a Cat 2 hurricane or a Major hurricane? Yes that possibility is still on the table .. 

We also stated that this would take a track to the west of Florida without making a landfall in Florida. Again, this is something that has happened and occurred , outside of the keys region. When we mention florida we mean mainland florida. 

We also mentioned that it would depend on how quickly Isaac can recover from his journey across Haiti as far as final intensity level. Isaac while dropping in pressure is still struggling from shear ...this due to the ULL that has been slower to move away from Isaac. Again that is something we mentioned last night.

ALL GUIDANCE HAS NOW SHIFTED WEST!

Virtually all the guidance has now shifted west with LA (NOLA) in its site. This west track and trend was first started by the GFS and the other models have been following that model with going more west. However, it has taken the ECM which is the better statistical model to under 48 hrs to catch on to the ridge being slower. 

So lets look at tonights guidance and then we will ge into the real time atmosphere..

As you can see the above image was the 00z Early guidance and virtually at that time every model had shifted west..West of even the western panhandle of Florida.

 The above image here is the GFS and this model has been the most consistent over its past several runs and it shows a NOLA region landfall.

 HWRF a hurricane model from 00z which you can also see has shifted towards NOLA region.

 6 Z Early track guidance and you can basically see again that they are all fairly well clustered over NOLA region!

 00 Z UKMET which was one of the models that was furthest east has now decided that it did not want to be left alone and be an outlier so it to has shifted its track west and is towards NOLA region...

The above is the European Computer model or the ECM and you can see that this model has made a substantial west ward adjustment. Only problem is that it took to 48 hours and under for the ECM  to finally join the rest of the guidance!

00z GGEM the track for the particular run is in red and you can see once again that the GGEM is sticking to the NOLA region.

The above is the 00z GFDL and this model to has the NOLA in its aim. Folks there is not a question about whether or not there is going to be a track to the west of florida and there is not a doubt that this will be taking the western track towards New Orleans. There is still a small possibility that it could be the MS/AL border. However..keep in mind that the worst side to be with a hurricane is the eastern side.

We are not going to change our track because it was issued as final and we also have New Orleans in the cone of uncertainty and with discussing it all morning and evening on our Facebook page people are aware that we were shifting the focus to New Orleans..

Now lets look at the current conditions and a latest image of Isaac..

Isaac is beginning to get his act together and with the warm waters that are in place he should have no problem becoming a hurricane. As mentioned above part of the reason why he has been struggling (and really folks that is a blessing) is because the ULL to its west is taking longer to move out of the way which has been causing some shear to be effecting Isaac..

You can see that the shear immediately around Isaac has been decreasing (another factor that will help strengthen Isaac. However..you also see an increasing shear area to the west but keep in mind that Isaac is not moving west but rather west northwest. However..once that ULL moves more out of the way that will decrease.

These three images are the convergence and divergence which the system is presently in excellent convergence and divergence and again this should end up helping Isaac to continue to organize and increase in intensity. The bottom image is just the shear image which confirms what we see on the tendency shear image. Around the system lighter shear versus west higher shear.

Movement..with the subtropical ridge in place this should mean that Isaac will continue to move on West north West tracking...eventually when reaching the weakness in the ridge ..Isaac should make more of a North turn... However..if the ridge remains stronger and the weakness weaker then this would continue Isaac on a West North West track ..

As far as intensity we see no real compelling reason for Isaac not to become a hurricane. We see no compelling reason for this to not become at least a Cat 2 Hurricane. We still feel potential is there for a Cat 3 hurricane as well.. The wild card in the scenario will be when the shear relaxes with the inner core organized it could be off to the races. We expect this to really start to strengthen about 12 hours from now and continue to strengthen until landfall.. Landfall will be anywhere from NOLA to MS/AL border. 
This will be a dangerous storm with very strong winds, heavy rain, beach erosion and flooding. If you have not done so yet make preparations for your home by boarding up all glass windows and if at all possible evacuate the region.

One more wildcard is that the ECM essentially stalls this out over New Orleans for 30 hrs. This would enhance rainfall and flooding if this were to occur.
Next update will be 24 hours from now!