Invest 94 L To Develop Or Not?

This would have been out sooner but the software that we use was giving us troubles. The question buzzing around the internet today is in reference to 94 L which came off Africa a couple days ago. This has created quite the buzz considering what some of the guidance at 12 Z was showing. In case you missed it ...

This is quite impressive considering this was the global model called the GFS and was at 336 hours out. This would be a strong to major hurricane impacting the Mid Atlantic Region. A lot of people bought into this and immediately the talk started circulating about a Tropical System impacting the east coast.. The GFS did show a track very similar to Irene...
The problem is that when one goes beyond 120 hours..One starts walking into what is called the Unreliable or the Fantasy range on the weather models.

Since this point and time ..the GFS has indeed backed off this solution. The ECM which also for several runs showed a powerful system at first recurving..then looking like Fl was the target and then it to has really gotten to the point where it does not really develop this system.

The question becomes do we now believe that this system will not develop because the guidance has now done a 360? Some may do that- we will not. The reason is simple..Until a center of circulation would develop the guidance is going to continue to display various solutions because the ensemble means of the models show various solutions. Does that make sense? Once a center of circulation has formed then they will be able to initialize things more accurately.

So lets look at present conditions as of 03 Z and see if this is actually going to develop..

Presently   there is not that much shear across the system. Only 5-10 knots effecting it ..however..further to the north is stronger shear and this is important if the system were to relocate any further north. That shear would start to impinge upon any COC trying to form.

The next problem that we see is a whole MASS of dry air or saharan dust to the north and also some to its immediate west. Dry air is never good on any system trying to develop.  What happens is it works its way into the center of circulation that is trying to form and keeps it from developing or slows the development down.

The greatest convergence is off to the west of the system but presently divergence is good. 

As far as movement. There is a strong ridge of high pressure to the north of 94 L . This high pressure should mean that 94 L will continue to move rapidly off to the west over the next several days.

While the GFS does not really develop this system any more with tonights run and the ECM is in the same camp of non development ..below is the 00z GGEM. 

 Now what you are looking at here is the UKMET in the top image and then the UKMET at 144 hours.. You can see that besides the GGEM..the UKMET develops this system. This is fairly important as often times the UKMET is considered the ECM's little brother. It can flag the ECM as being in error at times. The middle image is the rest of the model guidance as of 00z. The guidance continues to show mainly a west movement and with the steering winds and the huge high pressure north of 94 L this should continue.
The question really becomes what happens as it nears Hispanola?
If it crosses over this region and it is a stronger system it will more then likely end up helping to shred the system apart AKA 00z ECM and to some extent the GFS....

We feel development of this system will be slower then what NHC is suggesting at least as far as reaching tropical storm strength. 
The moral of the story is that over the next 5 days due west movement will continue and models are going to be erratic until the COC actually develops. 

Next update 24 hrs from now!