The above are some of the latest images of Tropical Storm Ernesto. Despite having good outflow in all quadrants it is clear that Ernesto is struggling to develop. All around the internet the question is being asked why is it that Ernesto is not developing and they are puzzled.
We think the answer lies in the orange color to the west of Ernesto. This is dry air and with dry air to the west of Ernesto and Ernesto moving west we are quite certain that the cyclone is ingesting dry air into the mid levels. This is what is keeping the system from intensifying.
After all it is not the shear that is the cause of the non intensifying system as it is ideal for development at 5-10 knots!
Divergence is also decent with the system however..as you will see from the second image below it is not in the greatest area of convergence.
As far as the guidance..majority of the guidance now is clustered with taking Ernesto south of Texas into the Mexico region. The GFS is also in this camp as well as the latest ECM which is below . Matter of fact the ECM and GFS are both pretty much in agreement with where this is heading.
As you can see by steering currents below ..Ernesto is caught in a flow basically from the east to the west. Eventually ..Ernesto should start to move more West North west..
This is the latest track that we see happening based on guidance. Cone of uncertainty stretches to the very southern most tip of TX..otherwise south of TX seems to be the targeted area ..
We still think that Ernesto will become a hurricane ..However ..if the dry air does not abate this may not happen. Dry air is what is presently resulting in this not being able to intensify. It is the only plausible reason at this point and time with warm waters and very light shear!
We will update this in another 24 hrs. We will have an update on Florence on Monday ….
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