Our position and Standing On Isaac!

We want to start this off with recapping some things that we had said thru out the day yesterday. 
About 12 hrs ago we had posted the following on our Facebook page..

"About a half hour ago, Recon found 2 areas of low pressure, 1 at 16N and 1 at 15N, it looks like there might be a center relocation going on towards the southern vortex .. This would be indication of the strength of the ridge!" 

And you can see from NHC coordinates the following:

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N  61.2W AT 22/2100Z

Now in this next part you can see that this contains the 2 AM update the following but on top is the center fix after the 2 AM update :

A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 5:55:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°43'N 63°30'W (14.7167N 63.5W)

To compare with:

2:00 AM AST Thu Aug 23
Location: 15.5°N 63.5°W
Moving: W at 20 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph

So you can see we have gone from 16.0 N to 15.5 N to now 14.43 north. This is important and this is and can have huge implications down the road... However..the point to take home is the analysis that we had seen via visible earlier yesterday was indeed correct.

Now lets look at what is happening with ISAAC and this will  help to explain exactly what is going on with ISAAC and why he is just a disorganized mess..

There is no doubt that ISAAC is very disorganized and this is because of relocating further to the south as we anticipated. However , there are other reasons involved as well.

Both these images are shear images. The first is current shear and you can see across the northern part of the system and off to the west that the shear is anywhere from 10 knots to as high as 50 knots to the NW. You can also notice by the yellow and orange colors on the second image , shear tendency that it is increasing to the north and also to the west. So this is obstacle # 1 to overcome..

These images are actually the convergence and divergence images and you can see that the best convergence and divergence lies across the southern part of the system. 

Another reason we are not yet dealing with a stronger system is that this is not yet stacked and vertically aligned. So significant strengthening is not likely until this were to happen and occur and that should be when it gets past Cuba and Hispanola. Again, if it were to travel across these islands because it is a weaker storm it would have less of an effect then if it were a stronger storm. So weaker is best at this point and time and it should remain that way thru at least the next 72-96 hrs.

Now lets look at the guidance and tonight we are going to look at all the guidance and to put this quite honestly .. all models have shifted west and we are coming into a consensus... Two models still remain outliers ..

A. The NAM but this is not a reliable model for tropics and not reliable until under 48 hrs.

B. The GGEM..the only model that takes this along the east side of FL but then moves NW into the central part of FL which is a large shift west compared to prior runs but as said we will look at them all..

First up on the guidance is the 00z ECM 

Western side of Florida and landfall in the Western Panhandle of Florida at 969 mbs. This would be indicative of a very strong to perhaps Major Hurricane making landfall!

Next part of the guidance we will be looking at is the GFS..

Western side of the Florida panhandle and this too would be a strong Hurricane to make landfall in the Panhandle region..

Next up is the UKMET 

This model as well has come west and takes a strong Hurricane into the Western Panhandle of Florida. Not unusual considering it is often referred to as the little brother to the ECM..

Next model is another one to come to the left and in line with the rest of the guidance above and that was the NOGAPS. Now keep in mind the nogaps is the MOST PROGRESSIVE BIASED model but we are only looking at track and that is it..

Not to many more models to go thru that are left. So far none support an up along the east coast storm threat. So the next one we will look at is the GFDL/ HWRF

Pretty amazing agreement so far would you say? There is only two models that are left and this is the GGEM and the NAM...

Well, the GGEM is one model that has brought this up on the east side but then takes it thru the central part of FL and then into GA. This is a major shift west for this model.  Of course the last model is the NAM..

So as you can see ALL the guidance with the exception of the GGEM / NAM are in agreement with a Western Panhandle FL hit with this going to and along the western side of Florida into the Eastern Go Mexico. These two models MUST be counted as outliers when stacked against the rest of the guidance.

Now ..what is happening is simple and easy to understand and it  is weather synoptics. There is strong ridging to the North of Isaac. With this strong ridging, some increasing shear , this makes the system susceptible to follow the steering currents. A weak, disorganized storm can NOT just slam into a ridge .. It must go around it and seek out a weakness. 

This subtropical ridge stretches from the east to the west and this will keep it on a heading of mainly due west with perhaps a little touch south yet of due west. Eventually it should feel the weakness with an incoming trough and take a turn towards the West Northwest and then NW.

We have no compelling reason to change our tracking from the top of this post which was created on the 21st of August. We also think that this will remain relatively weak until it gets past hispanola and Cuba and once in the GOM this should intensify and perhaps quite rapidly.

Anywhere from Mobile Al to the Florida Panhandle should stay abreast of the latest with Isaac and we will update this in another 24 hrs!