Tropical Storm Ernesto Update #2

Four different views of Tropical Storm Ernesto who since last update has gotten his act together enough to be considered a tropical storm.

While some development has occurred , enough to upgrade and name the system we still see an environment that is not conducive to significant strengthening at the present time and continue to feel that development will be slower to occur.

As the image above clearly shows there is still a lot of dry air that is around Ernesto and this continues to hinder development. This is why for a while during the day yesterday it really looked kind of sloppy ..

Also we are still looking at a system that is being effected by at least 10 to 20 knots of shear. This also helps to keep development more on the slower side..

Another factor is that Ernesto is not currently in the greatest areas of convergence or divergence and as the image below is going to show it is kind of elongated from the SW to the NE..

These are the statistical guidance models followed by the Dynamical models which are really the more reliable set of models. These models on the bottom are really beginning to indicate that Ernesto will feel a weakness in the ridge that is to its north and will begin to make a turn towards either the WNW or the NW..

Guidance also suggests in a couple days the shear is going to relax to around 5-10 knots and if this actually occurs then Ernesto will begin to intensify even further and approach hurricane status.

With the warm waters that are over the Western Caribbean and the GOM ..it is possible at this point and time that a Major Hurricane could occur.

Meanwhile with the currents and the subtropical ridge to the north Ernesto should continue to move mainly west..

The last image is the track that we are laying out over the next 5 days. We are thinking that Ernesto will stay to the south of the Islands of Hispaniola and Cuba..If he were to deviate more north and actually go across either of these islands it is totally possible that Ernesto will open in a open wave..

However ..if he follows the track above highlighted development should continue , especially after the shear relaxes and then it’s a matter of where will Ernesto go from there? If Ernesto seeks the ridge out then anywhere along the Gulf Coast has to pay attention.

Stay tuned for any further updates!