Currently the time is 4:45 AM...Danny has been and continues to be quite a perplexing storm to forecast. Everytime that Danny tries to get organized and take a step forward..He ends up taking a step backwards due to the shear that he has been experiencing. Weakening that started roughly between 5 PM and 8 PM on the 27th..has persisted.
Looking at 00z guidance and even the early 06 Z guidance..(the NAM) ..we have the GGEM/GFS/RGEM/HWRF/ECM/NOGAPS and to some extent the NAM..either stayed consistent or have gone to the left by a little bit. Matter of fact the ECM is basically on top of LI and then rides into SNE as well as the GFS. So, in this sense I totally disagree with NHC and there statement as of 5 AM that the models keep the center away from the East Coast. The center on practically all the models rides parallel to the east coast..basically hugging the coast.
So whats going on with Danny? We have new convection building..however..we have seen this happen several times and Danny has not been able to sustain himself. With the earlier discussion I had forecasted that weakening was likely to occur..and that any intensification would wait till friday morning thru saturday morning, if Danny is going to survive..This is the time frame that he has to work with.
Tracking? Tracking with Danny appears to be the easier of the two areas that need to be covered. Current thinking is that Danny should pass along side Cape Hatteras..parallel to the coast. Danny should continue to move to the NNW or NW as he feels the "drawing" of the disturbance over the SE Coast, the trough that was split and left behind from Hurricane Bill. In about 12 to 24 hours Danny should start moving to the North. Current thinking is that he should pass about 50-100 miles off the coast of Southern New Jersey...once he reaches this latitude Danny should begin to move on a more NNE to NE basis.
The reasons why I still think this should occur is because obviously Danny is a weak system. This makes Danny more likely to follow the lower level steering currents. Strong ridging...blocking high pressures..and a weaker storm should result in the track above.
The next fly in the ointment. The trough over the Great Lakes...with Danny being weaker...there is a good potential that the trough and the ULL over the Great Lakes will be stronger then Danny and that the two could essentially phase..and because the strength of the ULL and trough would be stronger..this could allow Danny to become completely absorbed into the trough with the advancing cold front. This would result in a major rainfall event..however..not so much in the way of winds. At that point Dannys tropical characteristics would have dissipated completely.
Scenario #2 is that Danny continues to strengthen in the next 12-24 hours and remains a tropical storm and then maintains that intensity and perhaps intensifies a little more as he parallels the eastern seaboard due to becoming a Hybrid system. Hybrid systems are not completely tropical.. consider them like a half breed storm.
Scenario # 3 is that the trough is progressive enough, and Danny is weak enough, that the trough just pushes Danny completely out to sea.
Scenario #4 is Danny just completely dissipates.
At this present time, I am currently thinking that scenario # 1 happens. This would be that Danny rides up the coast, parallel to the coast..as a weaker system.. and gets absorbed into the Great Lakes trough and ULL.
The main threat to the SNE area and the Mid Atlantic will be heavy rainfall. The heavy rainfall will set up to the west of the center and with interaction with the trough and the advancing cold front some areas could receive between 3-6 inches of rain.
As far as intensity..I am currently expecting Danny to remain a Tropical Storm. The potential for a category 1 hurricane no longer exists. Despite the above information, Danny will still cause some dangerous rip currents and strong waves and potential beach erosion.
Stay tuned for more updates. I will update as necessary and when needed. If i see anything that would change..or anything that would dictate a change in my current thoughts you can read it here on my blog or accu weather forums.
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