Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Update on Hurricane Bill! Now Category 3









I had to take a break from the PC and have been trying to catch up outside of the forum on things such as Data...

The most recent coordinates I have found are here..
18/2345 UTC 17.1N 52.7W T6.0/6.0 BILL 

I am going to say that after looking at the latest images that we are still heading WNW , stairstepping if you may.. The northerly part of the west northwest portion at this current time could be making slightly more headway then the westerly part. Compared to the last coordinates as of 5 PM we have gained.. .5 degrees north and .5 degrees west. This is using NHC as of 5 PM and Recon information now...

So it looks like it would be fair to say WNW...IMO 

Some images are above that are relevant to all below...

Now what is beginning to become concerning to me is the islands that are in front of Bill...

From the latest 5 PM forecast discussion
BILL IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A
WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.
This gradual turn to the NW seems to keep getting delayed with each and every update.

As you can see from the above images the islands and the hurricanes distance are getting smaller and smaller..

Now as of 8:30 PM Bill is a category 3

WTNT63 KNHC 190030
TCUAT3
HURRICANE BILL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
830 PM AST TUE AUG 18 2009

...BILL BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT BILL HAS
STRENGTHENED AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125
MPH...205 KM/HR. BILL A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. A COMPLETE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

So my attention right now lies on those islands. 

From there the question is where do we go? 

I want people to realize, not once have i ever said that Hurricane Bill was going to make landfall on the east coast. I did say that depending on how close the actual track becomes , it will impact the east coast. There is no doubt about that. The only way this will not impact the east coast is if it is well, well out at sea.
Now as of 00z early dynamical models... they are tightly clustered together compared to 18Z

Essentially further to the west as well...
Now perhaps most shocking and remember that the operational run tends to go towards its ensembles...

This should perhaps show why the east coast is not out of the woods yet...
Can you say west? 

So please do not write Bill off because that would be the foolish thing a person could do at this point and time! All eyes should be on this. Especially the Leeward Islands and the Northeast!


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