Tropical Update On August 15th 2009

As many of us well know, an El Nino significantly cuts back on Tropical Systems and Hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean. However, that seems to be having no effect over the last 24 hours as the tropics in the Atlantic have gotten quite active...

So lets take a trip around the tropics. 

First stop is in the GOM to the west of Florida where you will find Invest 91. Invest 91 has been slowly organizing and could be on its way to becoming a Tropical Cyclone in the next 12-24 hours. Current coordinates are 25.9 N and83.1 west. With the current steering currents in place this should continue to head to the west-northwest and make an impact between Mississippi and Lousianna. SSTS are in the mid-upper 80s so strenthening is indeed possible over the next 12-24 hours.

Next stop is further to the east and that is Tropical Storm ANA. 

ANA has been struggling for a better part of the day with dry air and shear. The center of circulation continues to be exposed..even though it appears to be trying to better organize. The GFS, HWRF, GFDL essentially dissipate this system before it can effect any land areas. At this point and time I believe that is the way to go. However...will continue to keep an eye on ANA and see what she does in the future.

Next stop is further to the east and to the south. That is tropical storm Bill. Labeled on the image above for some reason as TD 3.. 

This system has been continuing to get better organized and has the potential to become a hurricane in the next 36-72 hours. This system is also the system that has been causing havoc on the model guidance. Global in particular.

ECM has constantly showed this system as recurving out to sea and not effecting the USA at all. While the GFS went from striking at Lousianna to Florida to now the recurve scenario. So is the GFS bowing down to the ECM? That question has to be answered. 

Currently, where Bill is located is further south then what was being modeled and it continues to head slightly south of due west.  The ECM was also off by about 200-250 miles with its position from last nights 00z ECM run. 

The more that Bill stays south and continues to move to the west..the better chance for Bill to not find the weakness in the ridge and the better chance for a hit to the Leeward Islands. Latest dynamical models now take Bill to the north of the islands.  If in the next 12 hours or so Bill starts to head more to the NW then a recurve is quite possible. However, steering currents continue to be west south west. 

At this point and time I think that anywhere from Lousianna up the SE Coast to the Carolinas has to pay attention to tropical storm Bill. In my opinion, outside of Invest 91 L..Bill poses the best threat to parts of the east coast.