Hurricane Bill Update for August 17th..

Also Bill better start moving to the NW in an awful hurry because he is dangerously getting closer to the islands that he is suppose to go north of....

A couple interesting points from the NHC discussion

1. AS A
RESULT...THE GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THAT BILL HAS
MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD BEGIN TO BEND MORE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST BY 48-72 HOURS. 

This gives a potential 2-3 more days on a west northwest track...

2.BILL IS FORECAST TO GROW A LITTLE MORE IN
SIZE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE
GFS SUGGESTS THAT IT MAY BECOME EVEN LARGER THAN INDICATED IN THE
NHC FORECAST.

This is going to give bill a wide impact path...so if the final destination ends up on the left side of the cone you will be experiencing conditions from Bill.
3. BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH
This continue increase speed in bill. Again, I can not express how important this is. The longer bill maintains a west northwest direction at a fast speed the more territory he will cover in the course of time before any turn to the NW..
4. In reference to the image above. Notice the periphery of the flow that is around the two areas of high pressure. This is your ridge and its influence is well westerly spread. The flow around the periphery is east to west on the south side and essentially west to east on the north side. 

Until these currents actually change ..Bill will continue to maintain his west to northwest track.

5. The models have essentially since about 06 Z last night have been trending west. This includes the ECM in a shift to the west. I mentioned how UKMET was a red flag to the ECM...now the ECM at 12 Z shifted south and west along with the rest of the guidance. As of 00z this trend has continued with the early dynamical models.

The shifts in these models can be attributed to several factors. These factors can include speed, slowing of the trough, angle of the trough, strength of the ridge along with a myriad of other factors...

At this point and time all the information that we have obtained has been based off of satellite observations and other technology but none of what we are recieving has been based off recon information.

I believe that is scheduled for tomorrow. So until that point and time the models are doing there best at interpreting the data that they are ingesting. However..once we have actual real time recon data sampled into the models..we will then discover how strong the ridge is..More specific information on Hurricane Bill itself in relation to size, strength, speed and coordinates and we are bound to see a change in track as well.

Now..unless the models are way off with what they have been digesting..i think there is a good chance that the track will shift west with the recon data.